Ra.One Business Model, Estimation, Collection and Predictions. How much collections Ra. One need to be a HIT?

Everybody is amazed at the rate Ra.One promotion is going on. It started with a teaser in Cricket World Cup and it is still continuing. Everybody knows Shahrukh Khan is a marketing acumen and he changed the whole definition again with Ra. One. Hope his geniuses helps Ra.One to become one of the biggest blockbusters ever.

Now lets come to the economics. Before all calculations it should be presumed that Ra.One will be liked by audiences immensely and is a well made film, since without this it is impossible for Ra.One even to recover its cost.

 

It is estimated that Ra.One budget is around 150-155 crore. 125 crore is the cost of the film and 25-30 crore is the cost of promotion and release. So, this means for it to be a trade HIT or profitable venture it had to recover 150-155 crore and after that profit will start. For Theatrical HIT it had to collect 150-155 crore distributer share Worldwide (3 Idiots Worldwide Distributor Share is 125-130 crore) through Theatres only, which looks difficult because of Budget of the film, but never say never.

Ra.One Movie Cost (Make + Promotion + Release) - 150-155 crore.

Amount already recovered - 

1. Satelite Rights - 40 crores.

2. Music Rights - 7 crores (Estimated).

Amount needed to be recovered - 98-103 crores (Distributor Share from India and Overseas).

Now lets check the biggest all time HIT movies returns (Distributor Share Domestic Only)- 

1. 3 Idiots - 99 crore.

2. Bodyguard - 85-88 crore (Expected).

3. Dabangg - 77 crore.

4. Ready - 65 crore.

5. Ghajini - 60 crore.

If we only take the Distributor Share of Top Movies of 2011 - 

1. Bodyguard - 85-88 crore (Expected).

2. Ready - 65 crore.

3. Singham - 50 crore.

So, Ra.One if collects distributor share say as much as Bodyguard, which is still running, say around 80-90 crore, then it has only need to collect a distributor share of 10-20 crore from Overseas which is easily possible as Shahrukh Khan last released My Name is Khan collected around 35-40 crore distributor share.

How much potential of Ra.One - 

Since, Shahrukh Khan is the King of Overseas at the moment and his last film MNIK has collected 35-40 crore distributor share, Ra.One should collect around 45-50 crore distributor share, if we take 20-25% hike from MNIK. Realistically it should cross 40 crore atleast.

In domestic market, Shahrukh Khan biggest HIT is Rab Ne Banaadi Jodi which distributor share was 45 crore. But it has released long back and market scenario is totally changed now. Today if a film is liked by audience immensely, we can safely assume a distribution share of 45-50 crore atleast. Bodyguard released on Eid 2011 went on to collect 78 crore distributor share from two weeks itself and still breaking records all India.

Ra.One Box Office Collection Prediction - 

Domestic - 90 Max. 50 Min.

Overseas - 50 Max. 35 Min.

Note - We have already assumed Ra.One is a well made movie.

Amount might be recovered from Theatres (Estimation from) - 

Maximum - 140 (which is more than 3 Idiots 102).

Minimum - 85.

Addatoday Realistic figure - 70-80 distributor share (Domestic) and 40-50 distributor share (Overseas). That means 110-130 distributor share worldwide and it will make it HIT or Super HIT. Already taken that Ra.One is well made movie. It is just our prediction and criticism is welcomed. If God forbid and Ra.One comes with mixed Review it will set to entitle losses or may be heavy losses ever in Indian Box Office History. But lets be optimist and hope that Tsunami is awaiting this Diwali to shatter all Box Office Records. 

It is to be noted that Huge Number or screens don't guarantee Box Office success, only Good Content. Aarakshan and Tees Maar Khan are good examples of release with huge screens but minimal returns.