Don2 will soon be hitting down the road on 23rd Dec, 2011. It is one of the most eagerly awaited movie of the year. In fact we can say it is one of the 3 most awaited movie of the year (other two were - Bodyguard & Ra.One). So, what are your expectation from the movie? Will it hit bull's eye? Will SRK be back again regaining the TOP Spot? So, here we are again back doing the business analysis of Don2, a possible Blockbuster in the making.
It is a well known fact Shahrukh 'King' Khan badly needs a Clean HIT (Theatrical India HIT). My Name is Khan & Ra.One made profitable business overseas, but it was not a clean HIT all India. With Don2 domestic picture might change again. No doubt SRK still gives bumper openers at the domestic Box Office, recent example is Ra.One which taken historic opening at the Box Office. But, content is the king which finally helps the movie in long run.
Production Cost - Nobody from the makers of Don2 has clearly stated the budget of Don2. It is well known fact that it is an expensive venture. Few unconfirmed sources says budget of Don2 is around 90-95 crore. Also, makers have given a hint that it is not 100-120 crore movie. So, we can safely say that it is definitely below the 100 crore mark as far as budget is concern. So, if we take the Median value Don2 budget is somewhere in the region of 90-95 crore.
Amount Recovered Pre-Release - Satelite rights are sold to Zee for 30 crore. Also, another 5-7 crore will be recovered from music and other rights. So, a total amount of 35-37 crore is already recovered before the release of the movie.
How much need to be recovered from Theatrical Avenues - After deduction of Satelite, Music and other rights, around INR 55-60 crore is need to be recovered from India and Overseas theatrical avenues.
As far as overseas is concerned recent SRK film Ra.one grossed INR 40+ crore despite mixed reviews. So, if we take same figure of Ra.One as overseas comparison tool Don2, it should get a minimum distributor share of INR 15-18 crore from overseas. So, another INR 40-42 crore need to be recovered from Domestic market. Distributor share of INR 40-42 crore means around 80-85 crore nett business need to be done by Don 2 all India. This figure is more or less certain to be achieved by Don 2, as Ra.One grossed 120+ nett all India mark.
HIT, Blockbuster or Flop - As it is already mentioned Don 2 needs around 80-85 crore nett all India to recover its cost [*taking that Don2 atleast scores INR 35-40 crore gross (Distributor Share 15-18 crore) overseas], this figure will be benchmark.
Here is the Verdict (*Addatoday Analysis) -
Flop - Below 75 crore nett mark.
Average - 75-85 crore nett mark.
HIT - 85-90 crore nett mark or above.
*Clean HIT -Recover all cost from India Theatrical Alone, which is around 110-120 crore nett mark.
Super HIT - 120-125 crore nett mark or above.
Blockbuster - 160-165 crore nett mark or above.
ATBB - 200 crore nett mark or above.
What is your opinion on Don2? How much you think will its score at the Box Office? Give your thought.
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